Arch Manning's NFL Draft Odds Fall Amid Team Struggles
The Texas quarterback's draft stock hits 8% as Steve Sarkisian evaluates the starting position before the Ole Miss game.
Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Football
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Longhorns fans watching the quarterback position now see Arch Manning at an 8% chance of being selected first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. This shift comes as Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian evaluates the starting quarterback role following a difficult two-game losing streak.
Why it matters
The team faces questions about offensive consistency after consecutive narrow losses have left fans wondering if the current rotation will hold. As the season progresses, the status of the starting quarterback remains a central point of uncertainty for the program.
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market currently price Manning at an 8% chance of being selected first overall, down from a 31% peak following the Week 2 win against Ohio State. Whether this valuation holds depends on upcoming roster decisions following two consecutive 27-24 losses.
The players
Arch Manning
The current University of Texas football team quarterback.
Steve Sarkisian
The head coach of the University of Texas football team.
The details
Following losses to Oklahoma and Florida, Steve Sarkisian is reviewing offensive performance to determine if Manning remains the starter. Manning has recorded 1,295 passing yards and 11 touchdowns this season but posted a 20.6 QBR in the recent Florida game. Texas prepares to host Ole Miss this week, with the coaching staff still weighing changes to the lineup.
Timeline
Week 2 2026: Texas defeated No. 1 Ohio State.
Week 6 2026: Texas lost to Oklahoma 27-24.
Week 7 2026: Texas lost to Florida 27-24.
Week 8 2026: Texas hosts Ole Miss.
The Texas Context
This performance slide marks a departure from the momentum built early in the 2026 Texas Longhorns football season. The current evaluation of the starting quarterback position follows the standard pressure of maintaining a championship-caliber offense in the SEC.
Fans heading to DKR Stadium for the upcoming game against Ole Miss will see if the team makes adjustments at the quarterback position. The result of this week's practice sessions will clarify which players take the field in the next home matchup.
The takeaway
Watch for the official roster announcement ahead of the Ole Miss game to see if the coaching staff implements changes to the offensive lineup. Tracking the quarterback's QBR in next week's game will provide the best metric for his standing for the remainder of the season.
Further reading
Follow the latest updates on the team at Football.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Sports Illustrated.
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Should a college head coach bench a starting quarterback following a two-game losing streak?
